‘Failure gaps’—online reading
Cat Hicks in Fight for the Human:
The experiences of folks who find themselves fighting on a technical battleground—privacy, security, infrastructure, or even developer experience—have a lot of common themes. There's a psychological fortitude that goes into becoming a Champion, a clarity of seeing the consequences that other people don't like to see. Most people systematically underestimate the problems, failures, fragility, and errors around them … Researchers tested people’s estimation of failure rates across more than thirty domains and found a consistent “failure gap.” Champions may just be the people who have learned to overcome the typical failure gap in a particular domain. They’re like our sociocognitive field scouts, with sharper prediction skills for the disasters most of us can't tolerate imagining for long.

The paper Hicks mentioned is this (freely available to read online or download): Eskreis-Winkler, Lauren and Woolley, Kaitlin and Kim, Minhee and Polimeni, Eliana, The Failure Gap (August 04, 2025). Across seven studies, this team looked into responses to failure:
People closest to a failure—those with the clearest access to information about a failure that occurred—will tend to be those with the strongest motive not to share it. This could seriously impede the accessibility of information. For example, a reporter looking to write a story about an individual, a company, or an organization, may find that the most knowledgeable and powerful sources more freely share information on what is going right, versus what is going wrong.
If you’d rather not read the entire, dense paper, read Fred Hebert’s summary and discussion instead.
I’ve been thinking about how and why bad news related to likely failures or recent failures does not get communicated inside organizations, or is deliberately hidden from view; hence my recent posts on shifting baselines and undiscussables. As various initiatives don’t pan out—in the typical case of mandated ‘AI’ usage, because they won’t, and can’t—people are left the unenviable task of ‘easing in’ the bad news (to use Argyris’ phrasing).
Some good things from 2025
This is the part where we bask in the accomplishments of my friends, pals, and comrades. An incomplete, roughly chronological list:
- Chris and pals at Fenwick published Rewild Magazine (issues 0 and 1 available) as part of a larger community project.
- Jenny created Show Up Toronto, my favorite newsletter for local events in a city I haven’t been to in 20 years. Wherever you are, read the manifesto.
- Tonianne and Jim started their Humane Work newsletter. Recommended: Tonianne’s Sundays with Saarinen.
- Greg published Eject Disk, a set of 4 zines for people who are stuck in work or otherwise. Read online, or pay Greg to mail them to you. The first zine told me what I need to do in 2026, for which I’m grateful.
- Shannon (singer) and Jamie (producer) released the album that is now part 1 of their 80s Kids project, toured all year, and have raised funds and released the first single from 80s Kids 2, for which a 2026 tour is already scheduled. When I imagine I am busy, I think about these two and sit back down.
- Isabel launched flux studio. If you loathe ‘personal branding’ or ‘content marketing’ but gotta do it anyways, hire Isabel to help.
Beyond this, various friends left jobs (by choice or otherwise), started new work or adventures, and have done the right things for themselves. My family is healthy and mostly doing stuff they like. Walk into our home and beware sewing scraps, LEGO bricks, and books piled underfoot. Meanwhile: a steady, year-length drumbeat of protest. I love all of this, and this is what I celebrate.

















